Saturday, October 25, 2008

TPM composites:

Obama Maintains Big Lead.

REALLY big.

Here's our daily composite of the six major national tracking polls. Barack Obama is essentially maintaining his big lead in the polls:

Gallup: Obama 51%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-45% Obama lead yesterday.

Rasmussen: Obama 52%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

ABC/Washington Post: Obama 53%, McCain 44%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 54%-43% Obama lead from yesterday.

Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 43%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, compared to a 48%-43% Obama lead from yesterday.

Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 40%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 51%-41% Obama lead from yesterday.

Zogby: Obama 51%, McCain 41%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 52%-40% Obama lead yesterday.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 51.6%-43.1%, a lead of 8.5 points, compared to the 51.5%-43.1% Obama lead from yesterday.

This is kind of the problem with blogging about this election. It's not actually dramatic. The only question is the size of the win. And when you've even got Ted Stevens in a real battle for his Senate seat, that's not really a question at all.

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